![]() ![]() In a lab study of adaptive choice, Raab et al. Such discrepant results have fueled the theoretical debate on whether base-rate neglect exists and highlight the need for the development of a prescriptive theory in realistic decision environments (Koehler, 1996).įor instance, multiple experiments have indicated that athletes are sensitive to base rates and the performance fluctuations of players. ( 1988) found that 77% of participants actually did rely on base rates when estimating the probability of a team winning a game, a judgment identical in format to the engineer problem, and none reported using a representative heuristic. The authors’ argument, based on the representativeness hypothesis, was that people’s judgments reflect the essential features of the evidence-in this case, the person’s description rather than the base rates-leading to neglect of base rates. ![]() Those ratings were much higher than the percentage of engineers in the presented sample. Participants in this study rated the probability that Jack, a person described as being-among other things-a conservative, careful, and ambitious 45-year-old man, was an engineer. Kahneman and Tversky’s ( 1973) famous example was a starting point for discussions of base-rate neglect. One of the most debated biases is base-rate neglect, which refers to people not considering the base rates of a specific category when making decisions. It is a widely held belief that humans are irrational and show systematic violations of norms in their judgments (Nisbett & Ross, 1980 Pohl, 2016). We conclude that the debate over whether decision makers use base rates should be shifted to real-world tests, and the focus should be on when and how base rates are used. Our data describes a threshold at which players change their strategy and use base rates. Analyzing the sequential choices in expert athletes in more than 1,300 games revealed that they were sensitive to base rates and adapted their decision strategies to the performance of the opponent. One decision that lends itself to testing base-rate use in real life occurs in beach volleyball-specifically, deciding to whom to serve to win the game. Our explanation is that lab studies use single questions, whereas, in the real world, most decisions are sequential in nature, leading to a more realistic test of base-rate use. We argue here that while naïve subjects demonstrate base-rate neglect in laboratory conditions, experts tested in the real world do use base rates. One of these biases is base-rate neglect, which happens when the base rates of a specific category are not considered when making decisions. Human behavior is often assumed to be irrational, full of errors, and affected by cognitive biases. ![]()
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